Finally a week of NFL football that was ‘normal’. The first three weeks were absolutely crazy, with huge upsets at top online outlets like Bovada and unexpected outcomes. In week 4, the things that were supposed to happen more or less did. Will normally continue in Week 5 or will we see a ton more NFL craziness?
Thursday Night Football: Colts at Patriots
After getting trounced by the Jags and the Lions, the New England Patriots bounced back by smashing the Miami Dolphins, setting things right in the AFC East. Now the Pats and the Colts have pulled the straws for short rest and will square off in Foxborough underneath the Thursday night lights.
It’s been a long time since the Patriots have lost to the Colts, 2009, in fact. The oddsmakers in Las Vegas don’t think that this game is the one to change the trend. As of Tuesday morning, New England was listed as a 10-point favorite, but that number is likely to get longer as the majority public is likely to side with the Patriots.
So far this season the Colts are scoring 18.5 points per game on the road. This number goes opposite the Patriots’ 32.5 points per game at home. We can clearly see that the Patriots have an advantage on offense in this situation, but when it comes to defense, it gets quite a bit tighter. Indianapolis is only allowing 14.5 points during road affairs, and the Pats are allowing one pointless (13.5) while playing in Gillette Stadium.
We should expect this game to be a bit more defensive than some might think. The Patriots are not passing the ball very well, and although Julian Edelman will be back on the field, we can’t assume that the numbers will suddenly jump. The Patriots will keep pounding the ball on the ground and this Colts defense is solid. The projected total score between both teams is 51.5. With two brilliant QBs like Brady and Luck that number could get blasted apart, but look for this game to be more calculated field position and clock control battle.
Prediction: UNDER 51.5
Sunday Night Football: Cowboys at Texans
The Texans squeaked by with an overtime win at Lucas Oil Stadium, despite Andrew Luck putting up 464 yards and 4 TD passes. Meanwhile, Dallas worked over by the Seahawks up in Seattle. So, the Cowboys are coming into Houston on Sunday Night as 3-point underdogs.
The Cowboys’ offense has been anemic. They have been putting up just 16.75 points per game overall and less than 11 points per game on the road. The one thing that Dallas has going for them in this game is the fact that the Texans defense isn’t much like the Texas defense that we have seen in previous years. They are allowing a solid 27 points per game overall and at home. The Texans offense is a bit better, but their 22 points per game were augmented quite a bit by their 37 points against the Colts.
This is an in-state rivalry game that will result in some smash-mouth football. The Cowboys will keep this one close, and so I would lean on them covering 3.5 points or more, but you should stay away from the key number of 3.
Prediction: Lean on Dallas to cover 3.5 or more and UNDER 45
