Finally, it’s here. After a grueling 16-game regular season, only 12 teams remain to contend for the NFL’s ultimate prize – the Lombardi Trophy. The Baltimore Ravens, the AFC’s top seed, get a first-round bye as do the Kansas City Chiefs. The same holds for the NFC’s top two seeds, the San Francisco 49ers and the Green Bay Packers.
The rest of the field begins play this weekend in the Wild Card round. Here’s a preview of the action.
With WR Will Fuller in the lineup, Houston QB Deshaun Watson’s quarterback rating is 77.3. Without him, it’s 64.4. Fuller missed much of the second half of the season and sat out a meaningless Week 17 game. He is listed as questionable for Saturday.
The Texans defense may also get a boost if J.J. Watt can play. The perennial All-Pro suffered a torn pectoral muscle that put him on injured reserve earlier this season. Watt is needed as the Texans were just 27th in sack rate and 31st in the league in yards allowed per drive.
The Bills defense is one of the league’s best. Buffalo allowed 24 or fewer points in 15 of its 16 games this season. Since 2018, the Bills defense has allowed only 26 plays of 30 yards or more. The problem for Buffalo is the offense. In five games against playoff teams, Buffalo QB Josh Allen’s completion percentage was just 51.6 percent. Not surprisingly, the Bills went 1-4 as the offense averaged 14 points in those five games.
New England will have trouble making it past Tennessee on Saturday. The Patriots had the best offense and defense in the league early in the season before the offense tanked. It didn’t help that OT Isaiah Wynn, FB James Develin, and K Stephen Gostkowkski got hurt, but the Patriots just don’t have many weapons. Can they beat anybody with James White and Julian Edelman as their main weapons?
Tennessee is riding the wave of QB Ryan Tannehill. Since taking over as the starter in Week 7, the Titans are 7-3. Tannehill averages 9.6 yards per pass attempt, a full yard better than his closest competitor. Running back Derrick Henry led the NFL in rushing and the Titans are absolutely tearing it up in the red zone.
Since Tannehill has taken over at quarterback, Tennessee is scoring touchdowns on 80.5 percent of their red zone trips. If that stays consistent on Saturday, the Titans could pull the biggest upset of the postseason.
Seattle had a shot at a home playoff game but squandered its opportunity with consecutive home losses to Arizona and San Francisco. Instead, the Seahawks head to Philadelphia, which was 5-7 not that long ago.
Seahawks QB Russell Wilson has never lost a home playoff game, but he is just 2-4 on the road. Seattle had to bring Marshawn Lynch out of retirement to fill holes at running back. With Wilson running the show, anything is possible. Seattle went 9-2 this season in games decided by seven points or less.
The Eagles managed to win a division no one wanted to win by going 4-0 down the stretch. All four wins were against NFC East opponents, all of whom will be or are searching for new head coaches. Philadelphia was just 4-6 outside of the division and has a ton of injury problems.
Wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey, CB Ronald Darby, RB Darren Sproles, and G Brandon Banks are all done for the season. Tight end Zach Ertz has a broken rib and a lacerated spleen. Running back Miles Sanders is questionable. The list goes on and, as usual, the Eagles will have to overcome adversity to advance this postseason.
New Orleans QB Drew Brees is 6-1 as a starter in home playoff games for the Saints. Brees is leading an offense that is red-hot as of late. Over the past four weeks of the regular season, the Saints scored touchdowns on 85.7 percent of their trips to the red zone.
The Saints’ problem could be on defense where they lost half of their starting defensive line after they lost to San Francisco at home in Week 14. That could help Minnesota since RB Dalvin Cook is expected to be at full strength on Sunday.
Cook is not the only offensive weapon for the Vikings. From Week 5 on, QB Kirk Cousins is second among in NFL quarterbacks in yards per attempt and completion percentage and fourth in passer rating.
The Minnesota defense is going to have to figure out how to get off the field on third down. After leading the NFL in opponent’s third down percentage in 2017 and ’18, the Vikings are just 19th at 39.7 percent.
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